Why Strike rate is more important than a £1 average
Don’t get me wrong, a £1 average point score is a good measure but there is so much more profit to be made.
Personally I would take a high strike rate over a £1 average any day and this is why.
If the win strike rate is high, let say a monthly average of 95% this mean that 19 out of 20 bets would win, obviously not likely, but if it was 95% would you continue to bet singles? or go for doubles, trebles, 4 fold accumulators etc?.
Another negative aspect of a £1 average is consistency, as a £1 Average can be gained from just a few winners in the first few weeks of the year and not on an ongoing basis. Let say someone tips two 25/1 winners, technically they could tip 40-50 losers in a row and still show a profit.
So to explain further, if for example a horse racing tipster has a 20% strike rate the results would be similar to the below.
1st, 4th, 5th, 4th, 9th 1st, 4th, 5th 7th, 8th basically every 1 in 5 horses should win, or 2 in 10, 4 in 20 etc.
Now a very good tipster should be hitting 40-42% Win strike rate, that would look something similar to the below.
1st, 4th 4th, 1st, 1st, 4th, 5th,3rd, 1st, 9th over otherwise illustrated as 4 in every ten, 8 in 20 tips and so on.
A 50% win strike rate yes, you have guessed it, it would be something like one in two.
1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 1st, 5th or 1st,1st, 2nd,2nd,1st, 1st or 5 in 10 tips 10 in 20 tips etc.
The higher the strike rate the better. So over 50% is quite attractive.
Our nap (best bet) strike rate is approaching 77% with our nap placed strike rate approaching being 98% and consistent, that’s why it works.
Which mean 3 in 4 selections actually win, which means the higher the strike rate the more likely the accumulators would be successful, from January 25th 2013 to 18th June 2014, we’ve managed to tip 42 four horse win accumulators, all fully independently proofed.
A nap sequence in line with our average strike rate would be similar to the below.
1st, 1st, unplaced, unplaced, 1st, 1st , 1st , 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st unplaced, 1st, 1st ,1st ,1st, 1st 1st unplaced, unplaced.
In the above sequence there was a win double, 1 win 7 fold, and 1 win 6 fold.
Personally I don’t know any tipster that offers a daily tipping service with such a high strike rate. If you know one, I would be very interested in knowing who they are.
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Regards David (aka UKracingwizard)